For Your Eyes Only For Your Eyes Only: Another secret British memo has surfaced. The last time this happened, a major piece of the WMD puzzle landed on the table. The "Downing Street Memos" were written by various members of Tony Blair's government expressing reservations about their case, yet to be made at the time. There was apparently rampant skepticism over the clarity and gravity of the dangers posed by Saddam Hussein. So it would appear that Joseph Wilson was on the right path when he blew the whistle on the "Nigerian Yellow Cake" theory. So was David Kelley, the British scientist who supposedly committed suicide in the woods after announcing that his government had "sexed up" pre-war intelligence, cooking the books until they smelled like best-selling fiction. We thick Americans never figured it out, and we couldn't be convinced by the results of U.N. inspections. One has to wonder whether any other war has ever been conducted over such a completely false set of assumptions. In the aftermath, we have been equally incompetent. Other than the quick sacking of Baghdad, our people in office have been clueless. There were no flowers and chocolates, there's not much oil revenue, and of course there are no WMD. Developments since have been entirely predictable. Iraq today is much like it was under British rule after the First World War, when Winston Churchill suggested using chemical weapons to quell the "recalcitrant Arabs". There are a few differences in strategy and such, but the same thing is happening. Tribal factions are carving Iraq up like a chicken, with Kurds and Shiites in the North and South (respectively) holding all the oil, and a major population center in Baghdad holding nothing but a grudge. Anyway. New Memo: According to the Washington Post (I'd give you a link to their web site, but you have to register to log on, so screw 'em), troop levels in Iraq will be reduced drastically by mid-2006. Of the 160,000 coalition forces there today, only 66,000 will remain. Its feet wet, the Iraqi government will be given full control of all but the four most troublesome provinces in the country. But I don't believe it. No way. I think the Bush administration noticed (and perhaps envied) the vibe created by the Downing Street memos, and hopes to take advantage of the dry tinder provided by the Internet, cable TV and talk radio. Since those Americans who are so unsettled by the war put so much credibility in the first memo, perhaps they would be assuaged by this one. In short, I don't believe anything anymore, except that which turns out to be true. For conservatives, it's the exact opposite. They refused to believe the Downing Street memos, the actual minutes from meetings by Blair's cabinet. Didn't mean a thing to them - hadn't the liberals already destroyed Dan Rather's career with this stuff? And they take on faith anything their government tells them, even when the story is so obviously served on a shovel. So, where this new memo is concerned, I'm carrying through the logic of a typical conservative - churning stomach and all - and condemning the contents of the memo. Well, suppose this memo turns out to be bona fide, just for the sake of argument. This is a clear signal that our military is flagging, not a comforting thought at all. Our third brutal summer into the campaign, reports of diminished morale are commonplace; for instance, the commander of the Army Reserves has warned us about a potential "broken force". In the Army in particular, the ugliness of the war has stanched the flow of new recruits, and has hurt troop retention as well. The reason the Pentagon has resisted calls for increases in strength (as recommended by John McCain, among others) is simple - we have plenty of logistical support, but not enough combat soldiers. This memo, if true, shows that the United States is desperate for military relief. The campaign contribution calves, sufficiently fatted, must have pulled away from the udder of the Bush administration. We're not going to cut and run; we're just leaving, that's all, but not until after another 750 or so Americans get killed, and another six or eight thousand lose a limb or two. And we'll still stick around in the hot spots, so the bloodshed might let up a little, but since many of the troops coming home are supporting cast members and not front-line warriors, I doubt it. Even if the memo turns out to be correct, it won't make the kind of difference for which certain people are probably hoping. Oh, in the short term it will. We've proven to be a pretty easy flock to manage, with the red sheep stampeding this way and that, and the blue sheep being dragged along in the tailwind, dags slapping their faces as the ground thunders beneath their hooves. Having been run in circles to the point of dizziness, it's a wonder the American people can still stand up at all. Paul Heller 7/11/05 << back to the archives
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